Sparta was the superpower, Athens was the rising star. In May, 431 BC, Sparta pre-emptively attacked Athens. The Peloponnesian war lasted 28 years. Harvard scholar Graham Allison identified what he called Thucydides’ Trap, a tendency toward war when the top dog among countries percieves another country catching up to them, and threatening their predominnce. He cites several other times in history where this phenomena is visible.
Allison says his studies show that the leaders of the most powerful countries use structural fear to generate popular support for opposing the encroaching challengers. Structural fear is fear that is organized, generated, perpetuated by social and political institutions to manipulate individuals and maintain control. So leaders who wish to reduce a the capabilities of a rising power can generate support for war
by inducing fear of the new power and describing it as an existential threat to their nation. Allison relates this to the position of the US, and its relation to its economic challengers, mainly China.
In 1990 I was pretty sure that China was going to become our next prime enemy, biggest threat, worst fear, replacing Russia. Does it worry you that China will soon overcome the US as having the largest economy in the world? They will be number one. Some Americans have been convinced by demagoguery that they should fear this. Whether there is anything to worry about or not, politicians cannot resist the use of structural fear, describing China’s overcoming the US economically as an existential threat. Rally round me. I am strong and I will save us all. Its like free money. Press the fear button and, voila, out pops support like a gumball machine.
Not all Americans fear China’s economic climb, hopefully, but guess what. Nobody, zero, in Poland or Paraguay or Thailand or Spain fears another country’s surpassing their GDP. Everyone wants their country to thrive, but only #1 gets caught in Thucydides trap.
